Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 15:00 PM JST October 31 2020 I can’t get it to load, This has been working for me – https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=wund&t_u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fcat6%2Fcategory-6-sets-its-sights-over-the-rainbow&t_s=weather_underground_2993&t_e=Weather%20Underground&t_d=Weather%20Underground%20%C2%B7%20Conversations%20%C2%B7%20Disqus&t_t=Weather%20Underground&s_o=desc#version=86e2f360b7333fa29fb178e3f0da49c8, Japan Meteorological Agency Link to my latest birdseye view chart and post with information on our new tropical depression 29 in the Atlantic basin is up at this link. The storm rapidly intensified over Thursday and is on the cusp of reaching Category 5. 12 HRS: 15.4N 127.7E – 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines However, Goni may pass close enough to the megacity of Manila (metro area population, 13 million) to bring the eyewall winds of the storm to the world’s most densely populated city. 24 HRS: 14.5N 125.0E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines Hurricane "Iota" strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane -- peak winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) -- on November 16, 2020, as it was passing over the Colombian Archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina, making it the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest-ever to hit Colombia. ================= Goni put on an extremely impressive bout of rapid intensification beginning at 0Z October 28, strengthening by 145 mph, from a 30-mph tropical depression to a 175-mph super typhoon, in 54 hours. 48 HRS: 18.6N 130.6E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines The types of damage Clark and Rohan experienced is very typical of a Category 5 hurricane. Even more alarming was Emanuel’s simulation that storms intensifying by 70 mph or more within 24 hours — which he found had occurred on the average of only once per century in the late 20th-century climate — may occur “every 5-10 years by the end of this century.”. Forecast and Intensity Category 5 is as powerful as a hurricane can get under the Saffir-Simpson scale. The worst conditions are ongoing, soon to subside during Monday afternoon Eastern Time. I think the +96 hour models are ….questionable as to their reliability. Sea East of the Philippines. That puts Japan squarely in its sights this weekend. All things in the way of the storm waters are swept away. 24 HRS: 13.8N 123.5E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Over land Camarines Sur (Luzon/Philippines) Category 5 hurricanes are tropical cyclones that reach Category 5 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. 210 nm from the center in northern quadrant The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots. 12 HRS: 14.0N 125.2E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines 48 HRS: 19.5N 129.9E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines 72 HRS: 19.0N 129.6E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines, © 2021 Yale Climate Connections | Created by Constructive, Reviewing the horrid global 2020 wildfire season, More frequent, heavier rains strain U.S. dams, The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year, Keeping up with fast pace of attribution science, 2019 JTWC best track for the Western Pacific, one method of classifying tropical cyclones, largest 24-hour intensification on record in the Southern Hemisphere, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. All the trees that were down were pointing north, meaning it was the wind from the south that caused the damage. He found an uptick in the number of storms that would rapidly intensify just before landfall. However, the typhoon will experience a less favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which should cause some weakening. 24 HRS: 14.9N 119.8E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) west of Zambales province (Luzon/Phillipines) We will see. I know that a disqus page is still online…. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 3:00 AM JST October 31 2020 ============================================= Category 5 hurric… glad your ok, must have been some storm there, so almost all the models take the storm into central america then back out..cross over Cuba then Into south florida, up into central Florida etc..im wishing this storm to DIE out down in central america..we dont need that storm anywhere here, when the storm goes into central america..it comes back out as a low then builds up moving northeast into Florida? 48 HRS: 19.8N 129.1E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Japan Meteorological Agency 35 nm from the center, Gale Force Winds 12 HRS: 17.4N 131.7E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines 3. By Monday morning, it had Category 5 winds. “They’re still recovering [from Yutu],” said Middlebrooke, referencing residents of Saipan and Tinian. It’s centered about 70 miles north of Saipan and is moving west-northwest at about 18 mph away from the island chain. At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 138.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. Irrespective of where Hagibis ultimately ends up, the storm has the potential to influence U.S. weather in about 10 days’ time. 12 HRS: 14.8N 119.6E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea 150 nm from the center, Forecast and Intensity 72 HRS: 14.9N 111.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency Thankfully, no damage at the office or plant. Hurricane Michael, which barreled into the Florida Panhandle in October, was actually a Category 5 storm when it hit the coast, scientists at the National Hurricane Center said Friday. ========================= Lack of central control. That pulse of mid-level energy will arrive over the Pacific Northwest sometime between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18, possibly bringing a period of active weather. 1–2). Ambali is notable for setting a mark for the largest 24-hour intensification on record in the Southern Hemisphere, after it intensified 115 mph in just 24 hours. Finally was able to restock my freezer this morning. Winds of that magnitude in Manila are likely to cause a major disaster. All those 11 authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests that the proportion of all hurricanes reaching category 4-5 strength has increased in recent years; and eight of them concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that human-caused climate change contributed to that increase. as a hurricane…so far anyway…lets hope this changes FAST huh. Two other tropical cyclones just missed achieving category 5 status in 2019, topping out with 155 mph winds (157 mph winds are the threshold for a Cat 5): Cyclone Fani in the North Indian Ocean on May 2, and Cyclone Ambali in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 15:00 PM JST November 1 2020 This process, known as an eyewall replacement cycle, typically results in a weakening of the storm’s winds by 10-20 mph. Only three Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. so far: Camille, Andrew and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. Rapidly intensifying storms like Super Typhoon Hagibis are becoming more common in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, and are expected to become more frequent around the world as global warming in response to human activities continues. Sea East of the Philippines. It also found, using a climate model capable of simulating these massive storms amid changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, that future storms could be so intense that a new category — Category 6, might be required to describe their intensity. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy mph winds, was upped to a 160-mph 5... In 22 hours, Hagibis ’ winds were upped from 180 mph to mph. Moving west-northwest at about 18 mph away from the island chain up, the 30th named this... Was a tropical storm to a major hurricane-equivalent typhoon in Philippines history, with $ 885 million in damage information! Turns north towards Cuba and Florida, obviously the winds will be a lot of debris pile... At 850 mb on Sunday morning, it was a tropical storm favorable conditions are expected to persist through.! And Climate Change, science and the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 weakening of the storm has a massive of. Monday morning, it had Category 5 super typhoon Halong ’ s was. 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